Last month’s jobs report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics revealed that the monthslong coronavirus pandemic has caused employment to expand in some industries and contract in others. But within every major sector, the contracting industries far outnumber the expanding industries, and the job losses far outweigh the gains.
At least, that was the case as of September. The balance should improve substantially in the coming months.
One reason is that hiring takes longer than firing. Companies that suffered immediate declines in sales contracted quickly, whereas those that saw sales skyrocket expanded more cautiously, not knowing whether the gains would be sustained. As the pandemic has stretched from weeks into months, industries have increasingly made new investments and expanded their hiring plans. These adjustments to the new normal could support a faster pace of job creation. Americans are also starting new businesses at the fastest pace in a decade to fulfill demand for new goods and services.
Another is that the economy can expect a major “big state boost” when schools, amusement parks, and other businesses reopen in the largest states and more businesses are able to resume full operations.
Below, we explore how employment levels had changed since pre-Covid February as of the August jobs report in 14 sectors of the private economy, beginning with the largest and ending with the smallest. (Note that the sector-level employment changes are given through September whereas the sub-industry-level figures are through August.)
1. Professional and Business Services
The largest sector of the economy, professional and business services, went from employing 21.6 million Americans in February to employing 20.2 million in September.
Of the nearly 100 industries in the sector, only six have seen employment growth since the start of the pandemic. Pet ownership has received a boost among a population of isolated people staying at home. Credit bureaus are responding to a thirst for information about borrowers’ post-pandemic bill-paying habits. A massive investment in potential coronavirus vaccines has boosted biotech. And the CARES Act’s postponement of federal income tax day to July 15, 2020 shifted hiring for tax professionals back by a few months.
The rest of the industries in the sector saw losses ranging from minor to extremely large. The three hardest-hit industries—tour operators, convention and trade show organizers, and travel agencies—have been significantly harmed by the decline in travel, which has been deeper and more protracted than many observers initially expected. As of October 22, TSA passenger throughput numbers for the week were still down 64% year over year.
2. Leisure and Hospitality
Leisure and hospitality was the second-largest sector of the economy at the start of the year, employing 16.9 million in February. It has now fallen to fifth place following the loss of more than 3.8 million jobs.
No part of the sector has benefited from the pandemic. Every sub-industry has seen job losses—some of them, massive. Seven sub-industries had fewer than half as many employees in July as they did in February: cafeterias, performing arts companies, bed-and-breakfasts, sports teams, catering services, bowling centers, and amusement parks.
3. Healthcare Services
The healthcare sector is another where no sub-industry has added jobs since the pandemic. Only dialysis centers, which provide necessary care that cannot be delayed, have maintained their pre-crisis employment levels.
The steepest declines have been in offices of specialists, who saw demand for non-emergency medical services pause. Sector-wide, employment has fallen from 16.5 million in February to 15.8 million in September.
4. Retail Trade
Lowes, Home Depot, and Walmart have consistently been on ZipRecruiter’s list of top hiring companies since the start of the pandemic. But outside of home centers and supercenters, most retailers have cut staff after seeing foot traffic fall and in-store sales decline.
The cutback in air travel has hurt airport bookstores and newsstands and the shift to remote work has affected retailers of workwear and beauty products. Sales of business suits, for example, are down 75% since last year, according to NPR. Sector-wide, employment was 15.2 million in September, down from 15.7 million in February.
5. Manufacturing
Manufacturing is usually one of the most vulnerable sectors in a recession. But during the coronavirus pandemic, the percentage decline in manufacturing employment has actually been smaller than the decline overall. Employment in the sector fell from 12.9 million in February to 12.2 million in September—a smaller loss than over the same period in 2009.
About one in ten manufacturing industries has added jobs. Manufacturers of surgical appliances and supplies have expanded capacity to produce ventilators and masks. Producers of video game consoles have ramped up production to meet skyrocketing demand. And breakfast cereal manufacturers are keeping busy feeding a population of office workers who are working from home in pajamas and snacking on Reese’s Puffs.
At the same time, manufacturers of cars, clothes, frozen fruits and vegetables popular with restaurants, oil and gas field machinery, and dental products have downsized their payrolls by more than 15% in response to the pandemic-induced decline in car and clothing purchases, restaurant dining, gasoline purchases, and visits to the dentist.
6. Financial Activities
Employment in the financial sector has been relatively stable since the start of the pandemic, thanks to unprecedented support for the financial sector from the Federal Reserve and the resilience of the stock market and housing market.
Employment has fallen from 8.8 million in February to 8.7 million in September, with large losses among car rental companies and office equipment rental companies partly offset by small to modest gains among loan brokers and financial intermediaries, life insurers, investment advisors, and credit card issuers.
7. Construction
Construction payrolls numbered 7.2 million in September down from 7.6 million in August. The vast majority of sub-industries have seen large employment declines—especially oil and gas pipeline and industrial construction companies. Residential construction, however—especially of new homes, backyards and swimming pools—has performed relatively well, boosted by the new at-home economy.
8. Transportation and Warehousing
Couriers and messengers, including local delivery and private postal services, have rushed to hire more workers to support the shift from brick-and-mortar retail to e-commerce and move goods from warehouses and grocery stores to homes. But sector-wide, transportation and warehousing employment has fallen from 5.7 million in February to 5.4 million. Losses have been particularly steep in industries linked to tourism and commuting, like sightseeing transportation, transit, and air operations.
9. Other Services
The sector known as “other services,” which includes a wide range of businesses from laundromats to barber shops and nail salons, has been heavily affected by the pandemic. At 5.4 million in September, employment sector-wide is down 8.6% since February. The biggest losers in the sector have been parking lots and garages.
10. Wholesale Trade
Retail trends in the new at-home economy have affected wholesalers as well. Wholesale suppliers of construction materials and grains used in cereals have received a boost from rising orders, while those of jewelry and clothing have seen orders fall substantially. Across the sector, employment has fallen from 5.9 million to 5.6 million.
11. Social Assistance
Steep declines in employment and earnings have increased demand—and staffing—at food banks. But other parts of the social assistance sector have contracted. Demand for child day care services has tumbled as parents have lost jobs, shifted to working from home, or kept children home to reduce the risk of coronavirus transmission. A typical day care center that had 80 children enrolled before the pandemic now has 40.
Other community services, such as vocational rehabilitation services, which should theoretically be seeing an increase in demand during the recession, have nonetheless shrunk. The likely reasons are strain on local and state government budgets, closures of public libraries and other facilities where social services are provided, and increased social distancing behavior. Overall, employment in the sector has fallen from 4.3 million in February to 3.9 million in September.
12. Educational Services
Employment in the education sector has fallen from 3.8 million in February to 3.5 million in August. The decline is especially unfortunate because increasing education access and quality could be one way to counteract the long-term effects of the current recession on earnings and employment. Business schools, technical and trade schools, and fine arts schools have all seen large declines in enrollment due to the cancellation of in-person instruction. Sports programs have also been canceled across the country, putting three-in-ten sports and recreation instructors out of work.
13. Information
Since the start of the pandemic, demand for news and online information has skyrocketed, but employment in the information sector has fallen from 2.9 million to 2.6 million. Employment in internet publishing and broadcasting and web search portals has grown by a mere 1.5%, whereas newspaper publishers and radio broadcasters have lost more than one-in-ten employees.
At the same time, employment in movie production companies has fallen in half and movie theaters have laid off 85% of their workers. According to data from Box Office Mojo, movie ticket sales grossed about $9 million last week, way down from their usual $200 million at this time of year. Many movie theaters remain closed, but even those that have reopened are struggling to attract moviegoers.
14. Mining and Logging
Lastly, the mining and logging sector has followed a similar pattern. Employment sector-wide has fallen from 714k to 613k, with especially large losses in industries related to coal, oil, and gas production.
