Commission Forecasting Analyst Jobs in Texas (NOW HIRING)

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Functional Title: Actuary II Forecasting Job Title: Actuary II Agency: Health & Human Services Comm Department: Forecasting Posting Number: 20408 Closing Date: 11/19/2026 Posting Audience: Internal and External Occupational Category: Computer and Mathematical Salary Range: $6,000.00- $7,600.00 Pay Frequency: MonthlySalary Group: TEXAS-B-23 Shift: Day Additional Shift: Telework: Eligible for Telework Travel: Up to 5% Regular/Temporary: Regular Full Time/Part Time: Full time FLSA Exempt/Non-Exempt: Exempt Facility Location: Job Location City: AUSTIN Job Location Address: 4601 W GUADALUPE ST Other Locations: MOS Codes: No military equivalent
Job Description:
The Actuary II (Forecaster) plays an important role on the Health and Human Services Forecasting Team, with assignments ranging from forecasting to providing critical support of forecasting for various HHS program, including Medicaid Acute/Long-Term Services and Supports, Vendor Drug, Children's Health Insurance Program (CHIP), or Temporary Assistance to Needy Families (TANF).
Working with other forecasters and HHS program staff and team members, the Forecaster will perform complex and interesting statistical and research functions with moderate supervision from the Team Lead. The Forecaster is responsible for the initial run of all forecasts from their area and will verify and maintain the integrity of data used in forecasting and reporting for their area. The Forecaster position requires moderate judgment, with moderate latitude to make recommendations on data issues and forecasts. The successful candidate will balance sound actuarial, statistical, and scientific judgment with logical decisions to make recommendations to the team.
The Forecasting Team has proven to be successful operating in a hybrid In-Office/Telework environment. The regular schedule is 80% Telework and 20% in-office, subject to temporary adjustment based on work needs.
This is an excellent opportunity for someone looking to build their career in a predictive analytics setting, including for a recent graduate or someone who is looking to start their career in forecasting.
Essential Job Functions:
Under the direction of the manager/team lead, the Forecaster develops complex statistical models, such as time series models, using SAS or other software, including Excel, to forecast HHS programs and evaluate the performance of such models (30%). The Forecaster maintains and updates complex spreadsheets on a continual basis and identifies opportunities for improvement (30%). The Forecaster pulls and analyzes historical data on a monthly basis to identify and escalate anomalies and to ensure appropriateness for use in forecasting (15%). The Forecaster provides reports to management, the Legislative Budget Board, and others, on a monthly or quarterly basis, on the performance of models, as well as trends seen in the data (10%). Performs ad-hoc queries and runs simulations on request (10%). Other duties as assigned (5%).
Knowledge Skills Abilities:

1. Strong analytical skills with experience in data analysis and/or statistical modeling.
2. Knowledge of statistical software (such as SAS or R) and/or forecasting software.
3. Experience with Excel, including linking multiple worksheets and use of pivot tables.
4. Strong attention to detail and the ability to work independently.
5. Excellent communication and collaboration skills.

Registration or Licensure Requirements:N/A
Initial Selection Criteria:1. Graduation from a 4-year college or university with major coursework in a relevant field, such as mathematics/statistics/economics or any degree that included major coursework in statistical/data analysis.
2. Experience with data analysis tools.
Preferred Criteria:

1. Experience with scientific research methods, principles, and techniques; of statistical concepts, methods, and their application to research analysis; of forecasting methods and their application to policy planning and budgeting; of database analysis and query methods and application to further research or forecasting.
2. Significant experience in Microsoft Excel, including the development of complex pivot tables and the linking of multiple complex spreadsheets.
3. Experience utilizing statistical software or other data analysis tools such as SAS, R, SQL and Power BI.
4. Experience in communicatng and collaborating effectively, both orally and in writing, including the communication of research results/forecasts to a non-technical audience.
5. Experience with public policy or health care policy, and knowledge of the legislative policy process.
6. Experience effectively organizing and managing multiple projects and meeting project deadlines while working under pressure and with minimal supervision.
7. Experience analyzing and querying large data sets, and knowledge of query and database systems and tools.
8. Experience establishing and maintaining effective working relationships with individuals across a broad range of organizational position and technical knowledge.

Additional Information:
This position is required to work in office at the North Austin Complex two days per week.
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Active Duty, Military, Reservists, Guardsmen, and Veterans:
Military occupation(s) that relate to the initial selection criteria and registration or licensure requirements for this position may include, but not limited to those listed in this posting. All active-duty military, reservists, guardsmen, and veterans are encouraged to apply if qualified to fill this position. For more information please see the Texas State Auditor's Job Descriptions, Military Crosswalk and Military Crosswalk Guide at Texas State Auditor's Office - Job Descriptions.
ADA Accommodations:
In compliance with the Americans with Disabilities Act (ADA), HHSC and DSHS agencies will provide reasonable accommodation during the hiring and selection process for qualified individuals with a disability. If you need assistance completing the on-line application, contact the HHS Employee Service Center at 1-888-894-4747. If you are contacted for an interview and need accommodation to participate in the interview process, please notify the person scheduling the interview.
Pre-Employment Checks and Work Eligibility:
Depending on the program area and position requirements, applicants selected for hire may be required to pass background and other due diligence checks.
HHSC uses E-Verify. You must bring your I-9 documentation with you on your first day of work. Download the I-9 Form
Telework Disclaimer:
This position may be eligible for telework. Please note, all HHS positions are subject to state and agency telework policies in addition to the discretion of the direct supervisor and business needs.