Powertransitions

PowerTransitions is seeking an Analyst, Quantitative Risk – Power & Natural Gas to advance our modeling and risk analytics capabilities across our power and natural gas portfolio. This role is embedded within the Commercial Operations and Risk Management teams and is responsible for delivering actionable quantitative insights that inform fuel strategy, dispatch optimization, margin and basis exposure, capacity planning, liquidity management, and new project evaluation.

The Quantitative Risk Analyst will apply both deterministic and probabilistic methodologies across fuel supply analysis, dispatch optimization, portfolio risk measurement, and broader commercial analytics. Working cross-functionally with commercial, operations, and finance teams, this individual will translate complex analytical outputs into clear, decision-focused insights for leadership.

What You’ll Do

• Analyze price volatility, correlation structures, operational uncertainty, and margin/earnings drivers across fuels, basis, and power markets
• Conduct margin, earnings, and cash-flow at-risk analysis of thermal, renewable, and intermittent generation
• Model plant-level earnings and variable margin at risk using deterministic and probabilistic methods
• Support transaction-level risk measurement, including exposure, sensitivities, and VaR-type metrics
• Estimate potential future exposure (PFE) for collateral and commodity transactions using available inputs and practical simulations
• Evaluate fuel supply, storage, transport options, and dual-fuel dispatch constraints
• Support structured contract and PPA valuation and analyze project economics for new development and acquisitions
• Execute probabilistic or Monte Carlo simulations and run deterministic cases, sensitivities, and scenario analysis
• Measure and explain exposure across hub and nodal power markets
• Track and analyze natural gas, transportation, storage, and basis exposures
• Assist with forward curve development and maintenance for power and natural gas
• Build nodal and hourly shape curves and seasonal adjustments
• Provide analytics to support the valuation of merchant exposure for gas-fired, dual-fuel, and renewable/intermittent assets
• Analyze PPAs, tolling agreements, heat-rate options, and structured offtake agreements
• Build and maintain models in MS Excel, Python and SQL
• Work with datasets from ISO portals, pipeline postings, ICE, third party data vendors, and other sources
• Contribute to developing dashboards and reporting in Power BI or Tableau
• Maintain transparent model documentation and ensure methodologies are auditable

What We’re Looking For

• Bachelor’s or Master’s degree in a quantitative field (engineering, applied math, finance, economics, statistics), or related industry experience
• 2–6 years in energy modeling, risk analytics, or quantitative valuation
• Understanding of power and natural gas markets (heat rates, dispatch, basis/transport)
• Ability to apply and explain stochastic or probabilistic methods
• Demonstrated ability to work in a hands‑on role in a lean environment, requiring independent problem‑solving and comfort operating with incomplete data
• Python and SQL proficiency
• Strong analytical and problem‑solving skills
• Ability to communicate technical results to non‑mathematical commercial and operations teams
  Preferred:
• Experience in PJM, ERCOT, ISO-NE, NYISO, MISO, SPP, or CAISO markets
• Experience with market data from ISOs, pipeline postings, and market data vendors
• Familiarity with valuation tools (MATLAB, R, @Risk, CQuant, or similar)
• Exposure to PPA valuation, tolling, hedging, or structured transactions
• Understanding of BESS concepts and modelling
• Experience with Power BI or Tableau