The last couple of months have provided underwhelming news for our economy. August and September showed a lower-than-expected number of new jobs being created, and prior growth industries like energy are beginning to suffer the effects of a muted global demand. The holiday season is rapidly approaching, and that usually means many more jobs being added to industries associated with gift-giving cheer and holiday celebrations – Retail, Hospitality, Travel, Warehouse, and Events. But with these relatively bleak reports, will the season still provide its traditional boon?
So far, the outlook is good. Our latest jobs report confirmed extremely positive trends in warehouse and storage as the industry gears up for an influx of online shopping orders, and demand in Retail only seems to be increasing as well:
We wanted to know how these trends are affecting attitudes at the individual level, so we surveyed employers and job seekers and compared their answers to our hiring data from the 2014 holiday season.
What we found is that most job seekers and employers had promising plans for the upcoming season:
- 41% of employers said they would be hiring more people this year than last year.
- In 2014 the retail industry reportedly added 755,000 new employees over the course of the holiday season (October, November, and December) according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
- If the percentage of employers planning to increase hiring are successful in meeting their staffing needs this year, it could mean over a million new jobs this season.
That forecast only takes into account retail sector hiring; other industries such as Hospitality, Travel, and Events also experience an increased need during the season from holiday parties and tourism, and could be expected to hire more this season as well based on employer responses. This prediction is also assuming they are only planning to increase their hiring by one new person. 36% of employers said they’d be hiring 10 or more, so the actual numbers are likely to be higher.
In addition to the anticipated seasonal boon, 88% of employers said that they intended to keep these new hires on after the holidays. This means businesses are not only expecting a busy shopping season, but a healthy post-holiday economy as well. With the rising number of open jobs and decreasing unemployment number, many employers may be utilizing the popularity of job-searching during this time to fill their open jobs permanently.
Job seekers seem just as hopeful as employers that they will fill these typically temporary positions for the long-term, despite their reported lack of historical basis for comparison:
- 92% of job seekers said they planned to keep their holiday job after the season’s end.
- 83% of job seekers said that they did not have a holiday job last year
Their responses overall suggest less of an interest in temporary work than the opportunity the season provides to get a job and, ideally, retain it. Considering that 72% of job seekers polled reported being unemployed and over half said they had been working for over 10 years, it is even possible that some of these job seekers had a full-time job this time last year as opposed to a ‘holiday job.’ Thousands of new jobs have been added consistently for the last few years, and the trend toward a ‘job seeker’s market’ is on the rise. It is possible that Recession fears are finally beginning to dwindle, and that job seekers no longer concerned about indefinite unemployment are becoming strategic in their search and capitalizing on employer’s increased needs during this period.
Some industries are actually having a difficult time filling seasonal jobs this year due to low unemployment, and job seekers could be taking advantage of the increased wages and benefits being offered to entice candidates. This would explain why 6% more job seekers are ‘looking for a job for the holiday season’ than held one last year – job seeker could potentially make more money performing the same duties just by acquiring that job during this holiday season.
Overall, the picture painted by our survey points to a strong holiday hiring season, and enough post-season business for employers to plan on retaining new hires after the period ends. More job seekers are applying for seasonal jobs this year, and an overwhelming majority of them are hoping to keep their jobs into the new year as well. Additionally, job seekers seem to be recognizing their current worth in the marketplace and making job search decisions accordingly. Their prudence has the potential to result in increased wages across the board, but the inevitable post-holiday drop off will probably flood the workforce again to some degree and level out the current drought of skilled workers.
