Policymakers around the world have struggled to deal with the impact of the coronavirus pandemic because they have to manage two variables at once: the virus on the one hand, and the economy on the other.
Of course, the paths of the virus and the economy are linked. As the disease spreads, people reduce their willingness to consume services and perform jobs that become riskier. And that can paralyze parts of the economy. So controlling the disease can allow the economy to return to normal more quickly.
Trade-Offs
But not all lockdown measures are created equal. While some are effective at reducing the infection rate at relatively low economic cost, others don’t substantially reduce the spread of the virus, but have a very high economic cost.
The required duration of lockdown measures also affects how citizens perceive their costs and benefits. Some measures only suppress cases as long as they are in place, but give way to an immediate resurgence as soon as they are relaxed. Many people would agree to a stringent two-week lockdown, but reject even a more moderate two-year lockdown.
Comparing the States by Region
A comparison of job losses and COVID-19 death rates across different states within the U.S. tells an interesting—and still developing—story.
The best way to interpret the data is to compare states within similar regions, which tend to have similar climates and economies and which might be expected to have similar coronavirus trends, due to their proximity.
Here is an overview of how states compared by Census Region and Division, with a deeper look at notable outliers. We use the latest available data, as of mid-October, on COVID-19 death rates (deaths per 100,000 people) and on job losses (percent changes in employment).
At that time, the U.S. nationwide had a confirmed COVID-19 death rate 67 per 100,000 people, and employment was still down 7.05% from its February peak.
In the charts below, you may see where each region and its states fall, relative to the national average. We will update this story and these charts each month after the release of the latest state employment and unemployment estimates.
1. The Northeast
1.1 New England
Overall, New England has experienced above-average job losses, but public health outcomes have been very different across states. The most densely populated have suffered above-average death rates, while the most rural have been relatively unscathed.
Massachusetts stands out as the state with the highest death rate and job losses. The pandemic’s severity prompted a larger behavioral response from the population and a more stringent policy response, both of which have depressed employment.
Vermont stands out for having the lowest coronavirus death rate in New England. But its public health success has come at a high economic cost. The state locked down early and has been reopening only gradually.
1.2 Mid-Atlantic
New York is thought of as the epicenter of the pandemic, but Mid-Atlantic regional neighbor New Jersey’s death rate was more than twice as high, largely driven by outbreaks in nursing homes.
Both New Jersey and Pennsylvania have tougher restrictions than New York does, but New York’s job losses have been steep. That’s largely because the pandemic caused greater disruption in New York City, where more residents rely on public transit, live in densely populated neighborhoods, and spend a large share of their food budgets on restaurants. It is also more reliant on international tourism and the performing arts, which have largely ground to a halt.
2. The Midwest
2.1 East North Central (The Great Lakes)
Michigan, Illinois and Indiana have all experienced similar COVID-19 death rates, but the differences between their economies is stark. Employment has fallen only 4.6% in Indiana, but 10.1% in Michigan.
The disparity has prompted some observers to wonder whether perhaps some of Michigan’s lockdown measures may have been overly broad. Lockdowns that might have been necessary in urban Detroit might not have been needed in the more rural Upper Peninsula. And the costs of shutting down the construction industry early on, which largely operates outdoors, may have outweighed the benefits.
Then again, it is conceivable that Michigan’s death rate could have been far higher in the absence of those restrictions.
2.2 West North Central (The Great Plains)
The Farm Belt states have experienced both relatively low job losses and death rates. Sparse population clearly had an impact in reducing the spread of the disease and its economic impact, enabling a state like South Dakota to avoid any real economic shutdown. The mild summer climate also kept people outdoors.
Winter may bring new challenges, however. And already, these states now have some of the highest concentrations of new cases in the country.
3. The South
3.1 South Atlantic
West Virginia had a very low death rate compared to the rest of the South Atlantic region. It’s relatively low population density likely made social distancing easier. And, being at higher elevation, it had a cooler summer than other states in the region, meaning fewer people gathering inside for air conditioning.
3.2 East South Central
Mississippi had—by far—the highest death rate in the East South Central part of the country. The state’s governor resisted statewide lockdowns for weeks, leading to a patchwork of local restrictions. The state only suffered a 2.7% decline in employment, but the cost seems to have been very high in terms of more coronavirus deaths, illustrating the trade-off.
3.2 West South Central
Louisiana had the worst of both worlds: the highest decline in employment and the highest death rate in the West South Central region. New Orleans was an early hotspot for the pandemic, thanks to an outbreak related to Mardi Gras. As a result, there was a massive public health impact as well as an economic one.
4. The West
4.1 Mountain
Idaho had the lowest decline in employment in the Mountain region and in the entire country, as well as a low death rate. The rural environment clearly made social distancing easier. One reason jobs may not have suffered as much in Idaho as elsewhere is that the state experienced an influx of pandemic “refugees” from other states. Word is that building contractors are impossible to find there; they’re all busy renovating old homes or building new ones for new inbound migrants.
4.2 Pacific
Hawaii had a very low death rate, but the worst decline in employment in the Pacific region and, indeed, the entire country. That’s because the tourism and hospitality industries are the foundation of Hawaii’s economy, and have suffered tremendously in the pandemic. Hawaii has also imposed mandatory quarantine for arrivals since March 26 and other stringent restrictions.
Hawaii is now relaxing some restrictions and rolling out a pre-travel coronavirus testing program to revive the economy. The economy could also get a boost from an influx of remote workers who are able to work from paradise until their offices reopen.
